[Acpc-l] NPS MOVES INSTITUTE IN THE NEWS
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MOVES in the News
2 November 2001
Los Angeles Times - Page One
November 2, 2001
COLUMN ONE
The Sims Take on Al Qaeda
Borrowing from the popular computer game, the new breed of war games might
simulate the unpredictable methods of terrorists.
By KAREN KAPLAN, Times Staff Writer
MONTEREY, Calif. -- Inside a concrete-and-glass laboratory at the Naval
Postgraduate School, a computer simulation of Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda
terrorist network is beginning to take shape.
Scientists are preparing to conjure deserts, urban landscapes,
communications networks, weapon systems, immigration patterns and an army of
terrorists cunning enough to design plots of mass destruction. They also are
fashioning millions of potential victims who will be preyed on thousands and
thousands of times.
In the new war against terrorism, with its infinite possibilities for
unpredictable violence, the military is attempting to understand jihad
through the infinitely patient and dogged computer.
"Interesting things happen," said Michael Zyda, who is leading the Navy's
simulation project here, "things you didn't expect."
Military strategists have long used computers to wage virtual war, modeling
the clash of armies and the devastation of nuclear weapons.
But terrorists aren't fighting on traditional battlefields. They aren't
organized into traditional fighting units. And, as the attacks on the World
Trade Center and the Pentagon demonstrated, they don't care whether they
survive.
The new breed of virtual war game is attempting to push into that unexplored
terrain, drawing from a burgeoning field of artificial intelligence known as
"agent technology."
The goal is to create a framework flexible enough to probe the possibilities
for attacks in any setting. Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory
already are using this approach to scan the country's energy distribution
system for vulnerabilities that could be exploited by saboteurs.
Though many particulars about Bin Laden and Al Qaeda remain a mystery, the
programs need understand only the broad outlines of how they work. The
details of their strategies are supplied by the simulations, which run
through millions of possible terrorist configurations to find the ones that
are most threatening and destructive.
The terrorist simulations are similar to the popular computer game "The
Sims," in which players create their own digital worlds and populate them
with autonomous characters that roam about and grow, often with surprising
results.
Zyda and his fellow researchers suspect the same simple yet unpredictable
interactions that make "The Sims" so lifelike have the potential to
illuminate the unpredictable methods of terrorists.
In essence, they are creating their own "Sim Osama."
"Some of the very best games have very, very simple rules," said Will
Wright, creator of "The Sims." "But amazingly elaborate strategies emerge
that you can't predict."
The hub of the military's effort is an obscure research center known as the
Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation Institute in Monterey. It is
one of several groups, including the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office
in Virginia and the Army's Simulation, Training and Instrumentation Command
in Orlando, Fla., dedicated to producing military simulations.
Zyda, a 47-year-old engineer with the demeanor of a gung-ho dot-commer,
presides over more than 40 researchers who study the various ingredients of
simulated reality. Their specialties include human movement, terrain
re-creation, surround sound and casualty estimation.
On a computer screen in one of the institute's spartan offices, 200 red and
blue dots march across a tan grid, representing some foreign terrain. Zyda
watches as the blue dots devise their own attack strategy to gain control of
a coveted red army stronghold.
The scenario will take less than a minute to resolve. It unfolds differently
each time, although the blue dots, which have a slight advantage in numbers
and skill, are usually victorious.
The simulation program, known as GI Agent Editor, is the seed for Sim Osama,
a long-term research project that might not be completed before Bin Laden is
captured but will provide valuable information for the inevitable conflicts
of the future.
It has taken decades of computer research to reach this point. When Zyda
began work at the Naval Postgraduate School 17 years ago, war games were
like elaborate choose-your-own-adventure stories. Each program could be
played out only within a well-defined range of possibilities.
One training simulation that Zyda worked on had Army infantrymen move into
an enemy building while under fire from a digital sniper. Though the sniper
could adjust his strategy based on how the infantrymen advanced on his
building, all he could do was shoot from a window.
The weakness of these war games has long been understood. Though they served
as useful training exercises, the simulations were unable to accommodate
anything new or unusual. They certainly couldn't serve up a scenario that
planners hadn't anticipated.
Even before the advent of computers, military strategists understood that
these limitations could have dire consequences. One of the best-known
warnings came from U.S. Navy Adm. Chester Nimitz after World War II.
"The war with Japan had been enacted in the game rooms at the War College by
so many people and in so many different ways that nothing that happened
during the war was a surprise--absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze
tactics toward the end of the war," Nimitz said. "We had not visualized
these."
Before Sept. 11, no one had visualized the potential of multiple suicide
attacks using hijacked jetliners.
Zyda awoke at 6:30 that morning to get his daughter ready for school and
turned on the radio. The first plane had crashed into the World Trade
Center's north tower, and when he heard the news he instantly suspected
terrorism.
"I started thinking right then, 'How do we model this?' " he said.
Many of the critical pieces were already in place in GI Agent Editor, which
was developed by Army Capt. Joel Pawloski, a former scout platoon leader and
air cavalry troop commander.
Pawloski wanted the program to solve tactical problems, such as the most
effective way to deploy nine snipers among a 94-person attack force. He
created a blue army and a red army; and with a few mouse clicks, he set the
weapons range, movement range, durability and marksmanship for each soldier.
Click on any of the dots and up pops a screen that displays what's going on
in the soldier's digital mind. One set of boxes shows the numerical values
for its personality traits, such as independence and aggressiveness. Another
keeps track of where the soldier is on the battle grid and where it's trying
to go. A third box lists the goals--engage enemy, stay healthy--and shows
which is of highest priority.
Second by second, the dots spread themselves across the screen until the
blue soldiers have surrounded their target and the red soldiers have
retreated to the nearby foothills or perished.
Pawloski ran the simulation 165 times, with the blue army's snipers deployed
in a variety of schemes. It turns out that the blue army had a 96% success
rate when the snipers were deployed among nine-member squads, with far lower
success rates when they operated out of larger units.
To the 14-year veteran, the results rang true.
"The snipers bring increased range of vision and firepower," he said. "When
the snipers are at the squad level, the stuff they see gets communicated up
to the leadership earlier, and that helps."
Planning small-scale assaults on Al Qaeda positions is the most obvious use
for GI Agent Editor in the war on terrorism. The simulation's virtual
terrain can be adjusted to mirror actual places where U.S. forces are
planning attacks, though it will take some time for the technology to
migrate from the lab to the battlefield.
But by adjusting other variables, the war game can begin to approximate
broader geopolitical factors. Soldiers can be accompanied by hoards of
civilians, who respond to bombing raids by flooding refugee camps.
Terrorists can be distinguished from Taliban fighters by downplaying the
value they place on self-preservation and boosting their ability to operate
outside traditional war venues.
Making the jump from a single battlefield to the global stage isn't a matter
of simply stretching the physical terrain. The key is re-creating the range
of ephemeral social, economic and political forces that are at the core of
terrorist conflict.
The task, in essence, requires teaching a computer to understand the meaning
of fear, hatred, bigotry and other emotions that fuel terrorism.
"What happens if there's a little more racism in society?" said Ian Lustick,
a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania who has
created a virtual Middle Eastern country to experiment with such kinds of
social upheaval. "What happens if we open our borders to more immigrants? Or
if we ban contacts between one group and another?"
Answers to those questions reveal themselves to Lustick as brightly colored
blocks in a 50-by-50 square grid on a computer screen. Using a pair of
programs called Agent-Based Identity Repertoire and Ps-i--short for
political science identity--Lustick defines each square as a person, a
village or some other unit of humanity. The color of a square indicates its
allegiances.
The grid is a stand-in for a composite of Tunisia, Syria, Jordan, Egypt and
Iraq, and it is populated with about a dozen kinds of people. Some are
bureaucrats, who are loyal to the government. Some are fundamentalists, who
live in rural areas and aren't influenced by the government. Some are
fanatics, who can influence other agents but cannot be influenced
themselves.
As Lustick starts the program, the grid of colors begins to bubble in
seemingly random patterns. Gradually, the appearance melts into larger
clumps of color. Squares blink as each individual reevaluates the shifting
social forces surrounding it, then decides whether to change itself.
Lustick has run these types of programs more than 10,000 times in the last
three years to examine the effect of social trends and government policies
on anti-American sentiment and terrorism in the Middle East. He is looking
for ways that seemingly small actions have big consequences.
"I think about terrorism in terms of popcorn," he said. "You assume you'll
always have some kernels that are going to pop. How much lower does the
temperature have to get before you have a dramatic decrease in the ability
of terrorists to operate?"
His research has found that when the underlying relationships between color
blocks are constantly shifting, the blocks look to the government as an
anchor and their colors mesh into a pattern of support. But if the blocks
share a common concern about risks from the outside world, they are more
likely to become disaffected and blend with dissident groups.
Lustick's flashing grid is conflict in its most abstract form. That turns
out to be its greatest strength--as well as its most glaring weakness.
Researchers are painfully aware that their models omit the messy edges of
real life, and some of them might turn out to be critical.
"In practice, it's hard to get the information from the political scientists
into the hands of the computer scientists." said Marcus Daniels, director of
the Swarm Development Group, a spinoff of the Santa Fe Institute that
focuses on agent software.
In these simulated worlds, filtering out scenarios that are truly
implausible requires human judgment, which is fallible. They are meant to
augment, not replace, the intuition of seasoned military and intelligence
experts.
"We could have a detailed blow-by-blow story, and it could be seductively
misleading," said John Hiles, a research professor at the Modeling, Virtual
Environments and Simulation Institute. "The danger is that you'd use
[simulations] as a substitute for your own thought."
In one of the early runs of GI Agent Editor, Pawloski was confronted with a
stunning rout of the blue army. Instead of fighting their way to their usual
victory, the blue soldiers scattered into the woods and cowered.
Pawloski was puzzled at the development and immediately opened the program's
"brain lid" to peer into the thinking of the retreating troops.
What he discovered was a logical flaw in the program. The blue soldiers were
programmed to follow their leader. But when that dot was killed, the troops
didn't know how to choose a new dot to follow. Leaderless, they ran into the
woods.
In real life, soldiers are trained to follow the next in line of command.
"That's the type of stuff you see, then realize you have to go fix the
program," Zyda said.
Pawloski fixed the bug. In short order, the troops were thrown back into the
fray to wage their virtual war.
Web site for this article:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-110201simosama.story
For additional information on The MOVES Institute, see here
<http://movesinstitute.org> .
This is a posting from nfobahn@attglobal.net To be removed from this
occasional announcements-only list, please send a kind request to
nfobahn@attglobal.net
--Boundary_(ID_1JeD1P88ILH4b2OFJKXZjQ)
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<p><font size="-2" face="Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular">2<b><font color="#000011"> November 2001</font></b></font></p>
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<h2><font face="Times New Roman,Georgia,Times">Los Angeles Times - Page One</font></h2>
<h5><font face="Times New Roman,Georgia,Times">November 2, 2001</font></h5>
<h4><font face="Times New Roman,Georgia,Times">COLUMN ONE</font></h4>
<h3><font face="Times New Roman,Georgia,Times">The Sims Take on Al Qaeda</font></h3>
<h4><font face="Times New Roman,Georgia,Times">Borrowing from the popular computer game, the new breed of war games might simulate the unpredictable methods of terrorists.</font></h4>
<p><font face="Times New Roman,Georgia,Times">By KAREN KAPLAN, Times Staff Writer</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman,Georgia,Times">MONTEREY, Calif. -- Inside a concrete-and-glass laboratory at the Naval Postgraduate School, a computer simulation of Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda terrorist network is beginning to take shape.<br>
<br>
Scientists are preparing to conjure deserts, urban landscapes, communications networks, weapon systems, immigration patterns and an army of terrorists cunning enough to design plots of mass destruction. They also are fashioning millions of potential victims who will be preyed on thousands and thousands of times.<br>
<br>
In the new war against terrorism, with its infinite possibilities for unpredictable violence, the military is attempting to understand jihad through the infinitely patient and dogged computer.<br>
<br>
"Interesting things happen," said Michael Zyda, who is leading the Navy's simulation project here, "things you didn't expect."<br>
<br>
Military strategists have long used computers to wage virtual war, modeling the clash of armies and the devastation of nuclear weapons.<br>
<br>
But terrorists aren't fighting on traditional battlefields. They aren't organized into traditional fighting units. And, as the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon demonstrated, they don't care whether they survive.<br>
<br>
The new breed of virtual war game is attempting to push into that unexplored terrain, drawing from a burgeoning field of artificial intelligence known as "agent technology."<br>
<br>
The goal is to create a framework flexible enough to probe the possibilities for attacks in any setting. Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory already are using this approach to scan the country's energy distribution system for vulnerabilities that could be exploited by saboteurs.<br>
<br>
Though many particulars about Bin Laden and Al Qaeda remain a mystery, the programs need understand only the broad outlines of how they work. The details of their strategies are supplied by the simulations, which run through millions of possible terrorist configurations to find the ones that are most threatening and destructive.<br>
<br>
The terrorist simulations are similar to the popular computer game "The Sims," in which players create their own digital worlds and populate them with autonomous characters that roam about and grow, often with surprising results.<br>
<br>
Zyda and his fellow researchers suspect the same simple yet unpredictable interactions that make "The Sims" so lifelike have the potential to illuminate the unpredictable methods of terrorists.<br>
<br>
In essence, they are creating their own "Sim Osama."<br>
<br>
"Some of the very best games have very, very simple rules," said Will Wright, creator of "The Sims." "But amazingly elaborate strategies emerge that you can't predict."<br>
<br>
The hub of the military's effort is an obscure research center known as the Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation Institute in Monterey. It is one of several groups, including the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office in Virginia and the Army's Simulation, Training and Instrumentation Command in Orlando, Fla., dedicated to producing military simulations.<br>
<br>
Zyda, a 47-year-old engineer with the demeanor of a gung-ho dot-commer, presides over more than 40 researchers who study the various ingredients of simulated reality. Their specialties include human movement, terrain re-creation, surround sound and casualty estimation.<br>
<br>
On a computer screen in one of the institute's spartan offices, 200 red and blue dots march across a tan grid, representing some foreign terrain. Zyda watches as the blue dots devise their own attack strategy to gain control of a coveted red army stronghold.<br>
<br>
The scenario will take less than a minute to resolve. It unfolds differently each time, although the blue dots, which have a slight advantage in numbers and skill, are usually victorious.<br>
<br>
The simulation program, known as GI Agent Editor, is the seed for Sim Osama, a long-term research project that might not be completed before Bin Laden is captured but will provide valuable information for the inevitable conflicts of the future.<br>
<br>
It has taken decades of computer research to reach this point. When Zyda began work at the Naval Postgraduate School 17 years ago, war games were like elaborate choose-your-own-adventure stories. Each program could be played out only within a well-defined range of possibilities.<br>
<br>
One training simulation that Zyda worked on had Army infantrymen move into an enemy building while under fire from a digital sniper. Though the sniper could adjust his strategy based on how the infantrymen advanced on his building, all he could do was shoot from a window.<br>
<br>
The weakness of these war games has long been understood. Though they served as useful training exercises, the simulations were unable to accommodate anything new or unusual. They certainly couldn't serve up a scenario that planners hadn't anticipated.<br>
<br>
Even before the advent of computers, military strategists understood that these limitations could have dire consequences. One of the best-known warnings came from U.S. Navy Adm. Chester Nimitz after World War II.<br>
<br>
"The war with Japan had been enacted in the game rooms at the War College by so many people and in so many different ways that nothing that happened during the war was a surprise--absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze tactics toward the end of the war," Nimitz said. "We had not visualized these."<br>
<br>
Before Sept. 11, no one had visualized the potential of multiple suicide attacks using hijacked jetliners.<br>
<br>
Zyda awoke at 6:30 that morning to get his daughter ready for school and turned on the radio. The first plane had crashed into the World Trade Center's north tower, and when he heard the news he instantly suspected terrorism.<br>
<br>
"I started thinking right then, 'How do we model this?' " he said.<br>
<br>
Many of the critical pieces were already in place in GI Agent Editor, which was developed by Army Capt. Joel Pawloski, a former scout platoon leader and air cavalry troop commander.<br>
<br>
Pawloski wanted the program to solve tactical problems, such as the most effective way to deploy nine snipers among a 94-person attack force. He created a blue army and a red army; and with a few mouse clicks, he set the weapons range, movement range, durability and marksmanship for each soldier.<br>
<br>
Click on any of the dots and up pops a screen that displays what's going on in the soldier's digital mind. One set of boxes shows the numerical values for its personality traits, such as independence and aggressiveness. Another keeps track of where the soldier is on the battle grid and where it's trying to go. A third box lists the goals--engage enemy, stay healthy--and shows which is of highest priority.<br>
<br>
Second by second, the dots spread themselves across the screen until the blue soldiers have surrounded their target and the red soldiers have retreated to the nearby foothills or perished.<br>
<br>
Pawloski ran the simulation 165 times, with the blue army's snipers deployed in a variety of schemes. It turns out that the blue army had a 96% success rate when the snipers were deployed among nine-member squads, with far lower success rates when they operated out of larger units.<br>
<br>
To the 14-year veteran, the results rang true.<br>
<br>
"The snipers bring increased range of vision and firepower," he said. "When the snipers are at the squad level, the stuff they see gets communicated up to the leadership earlier, and that helps."<br>
<br>
Planning small-scale assaults on Al Qaeda positions is the most obvious use for GI Agent Editor in the war on terrorism. The simulation's virtual terrain can be adjusted to mirror actual places where U.S. forces are planning attacks, though it will take some time for the technology to migrate from the lab to the battlefield.<br>
<br>
But by adjusting other variables, the war game can begin to approximate broader geopolitical factors. Soldiers can be accompanied by hoards of civilians, who respond to bombing raids by flooding refugee camps. Terrorists can be distinguished from Taliban fighters by downplaying the value they place on self-preservation and boosting their ability to operate outside traditional war venues.<br>
<br>
Making the jump from a single battlefield to the global stage isn't a matter of simply stretching the physical terrain. The key is re-creating the range of ephemeral social, economic and political forces that are at the core of terrorist conflict.<br>
<br>
The task, in essence, requires teaching a computer to understand the meaning of fear, hatred, bigotry and other emotions that fuel terrorism.<br>
<br>
"What happens if there's a little more racism in society?" said Ian Lustick, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania who has created a virtual Middle Eastern country to experiment with such kinds of social upheaval. "What happens if we open our borders to more immigrants? Or if we ban contacts between one group and another?"<br>
<br>
Answers to those questions reveal themselves to Lustick as brightly colored blocks in a 50-by-50 square grid on a computer screen. Using a pair of programs called Agent-Based Identity Repertoire and Ps-i--short for political science identity--Lustick defines each square as a person, a village or some other unit of humanity. The color of a square indicates its allegiances.<br>
<br>
The grid is a stand-in for a composite of Tunisia, Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq, and it is populated with about a dozen kinds of people. Some are bureaucrats, who are loyal to the government. Some are fundamentalists, who live in rural areas and aren't influenced by the government. Some are fanatics, who can influence other agents but cannot be influenced themselves.<br>
<br>
As Lustick starts the program, the grid of colors begins to bubble in seemingly random patterns. Gradually, the appearance melts into larger clumps of color. Squares blink as each individual reevaluates the shifting social forces surrounding it, then decides whether to change itself.<br>
<br>
Lustick has run these types of programs more than 10,000 times in the last three years to examine the effect of social trends and government policies on anti-American sentiment and terrorism in the Middle East. He is looking for ways that seemingly small actions have big consequences.<br>
<br>
"I think about terrorism in terms of popcorn," he said. "You assume you'll always have some kernels that are going to pop. How much lower does the temperature have to get before you have a dramatic decrease in the ability of terrorists to operate?"<br>
<br>
His research has found that when the underlying relationships between color blocks are constantly shifting, the blocks look to the government as an anchor and their colors mesh into a pattern of support. But if the blocks share a common concern about risks from the outside world, they are more likely to become disaffected and blend with dissident groups.<br>
<br>
Lustick's flashing grid is conflict in its most abstract form. That turns out to be its greatest strength--as well as its most glaring weakness. Researchers are painfully aware that their models omit the messy edges of real life, and some of them might turn out to be critical.<br>
<br>
"In practice, it's hard to get the information from the political scientists into the hands of the computer scientists." said Marcus Daniels, director of the Swarm Development Group, a spinoff of the Santa Fe Institute that focuses on agent software.<br>
<br>
In these simulated worlds, filtering out scenarios that are truly implausible requires human judgment, which is fallible. They are meant to augment, not replace, the intuition of seasoned military and intelligence experts.<br>
<br>
"We could have a detailed blow-by-blow story, and it could be seductively misleading," said John Hiles, a research professor at the Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation Institute. "The danger is that you'd use [simulations] as a substitute for your own thought."<br>
<br>
In one of the early runs of GI Agent Editor, Pawloski was confronted with a stunning rout of the blue army. Instead of fighting their way to their usual victory, the blue soldiers scattered into the woods and cowered.<br>
<br>
Pawloski was puzzled at the development and immediately opened the program's "brain lid" to peer into the thinking of the retreating troops.<br>
<br>
What he discovered was a logical flaw in the program. The blue soldiers were programmed to follow their leader. But when that dot was killed, the troops didn't know how to choose a new dot to follow. Leaderless, they ran into the woods.<br>
<br>
In real life, soldiers are trained to follow the next in line of command.<br>
<br>
"That's the type of stuff you see, then realize you have to go fix the program," Zyda said.<br>
<br>
Pawloski fixed the bug. In short order, the troops were thrown back into the fray to wage their virtual war.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman,Georgia,Times">Web site for this article: <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-110201simosama.story">http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-110201simosama.story</a></font></p>
<hr noshade>
<p><font face="Times New Roman,Georgia,Times">For additional information on The MOVES Institute, see <a href="http://movesinstitute.org">here</a>.</font></p>
<hr noshade>
<p><font face="Times New Roman,Georgia,Times">This is a posting from nfobahn@attglobal.net To be removed from this occasional announcements-only list, please send a kind request to <a href="mailto:nfobahn@attglobal.net">nfobahn@attglobal.net</a></font></p>
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--Boundary_(ID_1JeD1P88ILH4b2OFJKXZjQ)--